The engineering
behind the markets.
The letter is written by an engineer, not a fund manager. It covers how a machine works, what it costs to build, and what has to be true for a company's plan to happen. No ticker symbols and no recommendations.
Latest: The Fastest Megawatt Wins
Tibeb is an AI research terminal for new technology. Follow what changed, write a thesis that can be proven wrong, and put it through eight checks. Only then does it name a company.
Tibeb is invite-only for now. Ask for an invite
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Discover
New papers, news and what builders are arguing about across thirty-two themes, from AI memory and lasers to nuclear and neo banks, and the narratives moving the market: who made the claim, how far the shares moved, who answered.
- AI hyperscalers
- AI memory
- Photonics
- Lasers
- Neo cloud
- Cybersecurity
- AV & robotics
- Nuclear
- Space tech
- Crypto
- Healthcare tech
- Macro
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Thesis
One yes-or-no question with a date, and what you would expect to see either way.
An example
Will a merchant switch ship with co-packaged optics in volume by the end of 2027?
Resolves by 2027-12-31
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Diligence
Eight checks on the thesis and on the sources behind it.
- Falsifiable thesis
- Evidence depth
- Argued both ways
- Sources verified
- Primary sources
- Catalyst on the calendar
- Committee review
- Verdict on file
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Exposure
The companies the evidence shows are exposed, how, and how much of each business turns on the thesis.
- Direct exposureBenefits
- Supplier or bottleneckBenefits
- Second-orderBenefits
- At riskHurt
What a thesis has to get through
Before Tibeb names a single company, the thesis and its evidence pass eight checks. They are the same for everyone, and you can see where yours stands at every step.
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Falsifiable thesis
A yes-or-no question, a resolve-by date, and what you would expect to see if it is true and if it is false.
If nothing could prove it wrong, there is nothing to research.
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Evidence depth
At least 20 sources from 6 or more independent origins — a wire copy of a press release is not one, and no publisher counts more than four times.
An outlet counts at most four times, and a wire copy of a release is not a voice of its own.
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Argued both ways
At least 5 sources for the thesis and 5 against it.
The case against is gathered on purpose, not left to chance.
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Sources verified
At least 80% of the sources carry a link that was checked.
Deep research keeps a source only if it finds the real link. What it cannot find, it drops.
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Primary sources
At least 3 filings, datasets, papers or regulator documents.
The thing itself, not someone's summary of it.
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Catalyst on the calendar
At least 1 dated event that could settle the question or move it.
A thesis needs a day it can be wrong on.
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Committee review
A committee of AI analysts argues the thesis from the evidence on file, and a chair writes the memo.
Each analyst commits to a probability. None of them recommends a trade.
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Verdict on file
One probability that the thesis resolves yes. A committee that is split gives none.
The companies named after it follow from the verdict, and each one has to cite sources from your ledger.
Change the question and the review, the verdict and the exposure go stale. They have to be earned again for the thesis you are actually holding.
It stops at research
The terminal ends at the companies exposed to the thesis: how it reaches each one, in which direction, and how much of the business turns on it, with the sources behind every line. What you do with that is your call.
Nothing on this site or in Tibeb is investment advice.
- orders placed
- position sizing
- buy or sell calls
The letter
Each letter starts with a framework instead of a prediction. Companies are named to explain how an industry works, not to tell you what to buy. The rest is your judgment, which is the point.
- The Fastest Megawatt Wins Read on Substack Why AI runs on engines and fuel cells first, and nuclear later. Gas engines rank first, fuel cells second, gas turbines third. Whoever makes the slowest part gets paid on every path. A long read, about 90 minutes.
- Korea's Third Bull Market Rally Already Started Read on Substack Korea's market seen through three forces: the memory chip cycle, falling oil prices and expectations of a weaker dollar. Set against the two long bull markets before it, 1986 to 1989 and 2004 to 2007.
- Intro to Investing Read on Substack The first letter: Charlie Munger's way of thinking, how the Federal Reserve works, debt versus equity, and how to write an investment thesis around your own life.
Read the letter. Ask for an invite.
The letter is open to everyone. Tibeb is invite-only for now. Write for an invite or a partnership, or to say where the research is wrong. Disagreement that comes with a source is the most useful kind.
nateasefa@habeshamarketresearch.com